Geopolitical conflict is widening the valuation gap in M&A
The current situation involving Iran, Israel and the United States is starting to show up in M&A conversations. It is not stopping deals, but it is changing how they are getting done. Sellers are still holding onto pricing based on past performance or where they see the business going. Buyers are looking at the same deal and underwriting it with a lot more caution, factoring in volatility, timing risk and how quickly things can move. That gap is where most deals are getting stuck. In practice: Debt is feeding into this as well. Lenders are tighter on structure and downside, which directly impacts how buyers price and how far they can stretch. In the UK market, this is more obvious. A lot of transactions rely on leverage and forward assumptions. When those assumptions are challenged, valuation follows. So the shift is simple. Valuation is no longer just a number. It is a combination of structure, timing and confidence in execution. The deals that get done are the ones where that is dealt with upfront, not negotiated at the end.